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7 November 2002
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MSM on rebound


Muscat Securities market made an excellent recovery this month

The market reported a marked revival in the period 21 May-21 June, 2006. The general index improved by 3.15 per cent. The banking sector was the only marginal loser while the industry and service sectors improved substantially.

Among the period’s most significant developments, Omantel came out with a provisional result for the period ending 31 May, 2006. The profits for five months stood at RO37.523 million, almost 18.7 per cent higher than the corresponding period of year 2005 which stood at RO31.603 million. ONIC Holding declared a 30 per cent cash dividend and 10 per cent stock dividend.

Fincorp is in the process of selling 50 per cent of its holding in Osool Inv., Jordan. The selling price will be JD1.800 per share, representing a return of 80 per cent over an investment period of seven months.

United Insurance company SAOG decided to postpone the rights offer to the second half of September 2006, and the rate of the right offer will be decided in the light of the prevailing market conditions at that time. The board decision to postpone the rights offer is based on summer season as shareholders are on vacation, and after taking into consideration the current sentiment of MSM and the decline of the MSM30 Index.

Future Outlook

During the month of May 2006, the world markets registered very significant and steep fall. However, this has not affected GCC markets to a greater extent. The main reasons for the fall in the world market indices were:
1. A continuous weakness exhibited by the US economy both in terms of higher budget deficits and higher current account deficits which is mostly responsible for erosion in the value of the US Dollar.
2. A continuous depreciation of Dollar forces the US Federal Reserve to raise the interest rates. This in turn fuels the interest rate increase across the globe.
3. A fall in metal prices which rose to unsustainable levels in the last three years.
4. A continuous increase in crude oil prices where the demand-supply gap is widening.

Though these factors are adverse for other global markets, the last factor is greatly advantageous to the GCC markets and pushed up the valuations there. As a result, there is an enormous liquidity floating in the Gulf region which should fuel stock market growth. The other factor is the rapid economic expansion in the Gulf regime due to higher oil revenues for the government. Due to all this, Gulf markets should enjoy excellent economic growth in future, which should be a fuel for stock market growth.

Data and analysis by The Financial Corporation SAOG (Fincorp). While utmost care has been taken in preparing the above report, neither Fincorp nor Oman Economic Review make any guarantee, representation or warranty, whether express or implied, and accepts no responsibility or liability as to its accuracy or completeness of the data being provided.

Following this, the entire GCC markets, especially Oman, where valuations are much more attractive compared to other GCC counterparts, should attract more global investors and funds. As said by us many times, investors should stay invested in good companies with a medium to long term perspective to take advantage of these factors.

Index type

21-May-06

21-Jun-06

MTD Growth-%

YTD Growth-%

General 4,754.38 4,904.29 3.15% 0.60%
Banking 6,610.45 6,587.98 -0.34% -3.79%
Industry 3,125.77 3,417.13 9.32% -9.56%
2,007.93 2,007.93 2,094.59 4.32% 6.02%

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